As a peripheral industry of semiconductors, the display industry has been a focus of attention in recent years. For example, in the context of the global semiconductor shortage and the supply-demand imbalance, LCD panels have shown a roller-coaster-like price trend; miniLED is gradually rising, steadily lowering costs; and OLED's market share continues to increase...
Recently, DSCC (Display Supply Chain) published a report on the top 10 predictions for the display industry in 2022. This article provides a simple summary and review of the white paper, combining other available information. It aims to help those interested in the display industry. For more detailed industry specifics, it is recommended to download the original DSCC report.
LCD TV Panel Prices Continue to Drop, but Won't Reach Historic Lows
This trend was discussed in a recent article. Prices for LCD TV panels began to rise in May 2020 and continued for over a year. However, prices began to plummet in June of the previous year, marking the fastest price increase and decrease in the history of the FPD (flat panel display) sector. The earlier price increases were mainly due to supply-demand imbalances, especially driven by the COVID-19 pandemic that sparked demand. By December of last year, LCD TV panel prices had dropped 46% from their peak in June. DSCC predicts that while prices will continue to fall in the first months of 2022, they will not fall to their historical lows.
Samsung and LG, which originally planned to exit the LCD business earlier and shut down their LCD factories in South Korea, delayed these plans due to the price surge. However, with recent price drops, the plan to exit the LCD market will likely be reconsidered, stabilizing LCD TV panel prices in the short term.
Over 10 Million OLED TV Panels to Ship in 2022
This is an obvious trend. In 2016, OLED TV panel shipments were less than 1 million units, accounting for around 0.4% of the entire TV market. Since then, shipments have grown at double-digit rates each year, with LG continuing to expand production. Samsung will also join the OLED TV panel market with QD-OLED technology, and DSCC expects OLED TV panel shipments to exceed 10 million units in 2022, occupying around 4% of the TV market.
QD-OLED Sales Will Begin, But Annual Sales Won't Exceed 1 Million Units
Samsung began large-scale production of QD-OLED TVs in Q4 of 2021, with both Sony and Samsung's consumer electronics businesses expected to sell these products in 2022. However, Samsung faces technical challenges in manufacturing these panels, such as the Gen 8.5 oxide TFT backplane and complex OLED stacking. Due to these challenges, QD-OLED TVs may have a higher product positioning compared to white OLED but may not have sufficient picture quality advantages to differentiate them significantly.
US-China Trade Tensions Continue to Affect the Display Industry
The ongoing trade tensions, including the US imposing import tariffs on Chinese goods, have had a substantial impact on the display industry. Increased tariffs have made Chinese-manufactured TVs less competitive, prompting manufacturers to shift production to Mexico, Vietnam, and Thailand. In 2018, China accounted for 55% of TV imports to the US, but by Q3 2021, this had dropped to 16%. This trend is expected to extend to other products such as mobile phones and IT devices, adding significant uncertainty to the display industry.
Apple to Launch AR/VR Devices
Rumors suggest that Apple's AR/VR devices will be released in the second half of this year. The company has prepared various components, including LiDAR sensors and spatial audio. DSCC predicts that Apple's headsets will feature an innovative display configuration with three display modules: two Micro OLED screens and one AMOLED panel. Sony Semiconductor Solutions is expected to be the supplier for the Micro OLED displays.
Commercially Viable Efficient Blue OLED Emitters Still Not Available
The development of high-efficiency blue OLED emitters is crucial for the OLED industry. However, progress has been slow, and DSCC predicts that in 2022, there will still be no commercially viable blue OLED emitters.
LCD Capacity Expansion Delays, Even Halted
Originally, DSCC expected significant expansion in LCD production capacity in 2021. However, with the price drop of LCD panels, plans for expansion have been delayed or canceled, affecting companies like BOE, CSOT, HKC, and Tianma.
Semiconductor and Component Prices Drop
Following the price increase in LCD TV panels, other components like glass, DDICs, and polarizers also saw price hikes due to supply shortages. However, DSCC predicts that prices for display components such as glass, polarizers, and DDICs will begin to fall in 2022.
Mergers and Acquisitions in China's FPD Industry
During periods of market downturn, smaller players in the display industry are often acquired. For example, China Star Optoelectronics has acquired Samsung's Suzhou factory, and BOE has acquired CEC Panda's factory. DSCC predicts this trend will continue in 2022.
OLED Sales Will Surpass miniLED in IT Applications
In addition to smartphones and TVs, the IT sector is expected to see competition between LCD and OLED displays. DSCC predicts that OLED notebook panel shipments will grow by 80% in 2022, while miniLED shipments, driven by Apple's MacBook Pro, will see growth of 150%. In the tablet market, miniLED will see higher growth, but OLED shipments will still increase significantly.
